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With conference tournaments in full swing across the country, we’ll be updating our projections daily leading up to Selection Monday. Moving into Thursday’s action, there are two big storylines: will the ultra-soft bubble soften a bit today? Which teams in the 13-16 age category will increase their hosting chances today?
Looking at the top eight seeds, there is no change in terms of the eight teams. However, we flipped Clemson and Stanford after the two teams won games on Wednesday. The Tigers are five spots ahead of the Cardinal and the stats remain in their favor. But again, that’s a minor change.
As for the 9-16 hosts, we continue to feel that Auburn and Alabama are helping their jockey positions with impressive showings so far this week in Hoover, while Kentucky remains in the Top 16 with its superior RPI of 2 and strong across the board statistics. The Big 12 remains a mess with all three contenders – West Virginia, Oklahoma State and Texas – falling into the 20s. The Longhorns may be in the worst spot at 27, with OSU and WVU actually playing in an elimination game on Thursday. All three of these teams need wins. We have inserted South Carolina and the state of Indiana. The Gamecocks need to beat A&M this morning to feel confident, while Indiana State is an interesting test case. The committee likes schedule intent, and the Sycamores scheduled the No. 3 non-conference strength of the schedule to match a Top 10 RPI. That begs this question: If the state of Indiana can’t host with those two metrics in its favor, when will it ever host? With no other contenders at the moment, the Sycamores could be in a position of strength today with more Big 12 carnage.
The SEC has the most expected bids with 10. The ACC is next with 9, followed by the Big 12 with seven of the nine teams making the field. The Pac-12 is next with six bids, while the Sun Belt and Big Ten each have three teams in the field, while the Big West has two in UCSB and UC Irvine. The Colonial is the only other multi-bid league, with two in Northeastern and UNC Wilmington (the expected winner of the automatic bid).
Mark Etheridge, Kendall Rogers and Aaron Fitt rounded up the postseason projections. Get more postseason analysis here with our daily Postseason Buzz.
AT-LARGE LADDER:
Last four in, top four out, from strongest to weakest:
61. U.C. Irvine
62. State of Kansas
63. State of Arizona
64. Our Lady
—–CUT OFF—–
65. Louisiana
66. State of Texas
67. Xavier
68.Arizona